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8/30/2008

Vancl靛蓝的牛仔

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靛蓝牛仔

8/29/2008

重新审视中国经济繁荣

8月29日摩根大通中国证券市场部主席李晶在给《金融中国》中文网撰稿,全文指出指出:

 

在对中国的经济前景预期上,全球投资者从未存在如此巨大分歧。随着中国股市今年迄今下挫56%,且GDP增长连续4个季度下滑,市场对于中国增长及对资源需求的可持续性提出了诸多置疑。

中国经济的确处在一个转折点。在历经数年的两位数增长后,在政策日程表上对于经济大幅下挫的担忧取代了对于经济过热的担忧。预计GDP增长将温和放缓,出口商正忙于应对不断飙升的成本及日益疲软的全球需求。国内经济方面,一系列近期数据表明,从房地产直至汽车等重要经济领域正在呈现周期性下滑。

面对越来越多有关中国这个世界最大的新兴经济体经济增长放缓的证据,全球投资者正重新评估中国繁荣背后的因素,并研究其对商品需求及曾经受益于中国增长的公司的意义。

我认为:

——随着外部需求疲软及中国出口领域经历结构性转型,贸易对经济增长的贡献可能将逐步减少,这意味着GDP两位数增长的年代已临近尾声。结构性低通货膨胀率的年代亦一去不返——薪金增长与能源成本管制的逐步放开将使得通货膨胀率不断上扬。

——尽管经济增长放缓且某些领域出现周期性下滑,但中国对于工业商品的需求仍将保持强劲,雄心勃勃的基础建设计划为此提供了支持。由于中国中游加工商面临价格控制,最能从中国增长中受益的是那些拥有获得原材料特权及较低成本结构的领先全球资源公司 (而且重要的是,具有对清晰市场信号作出反应的能力)。

——中国公司业绩则前景各异。中国领先银行的利润位居全球行业之首,但中国的精炼商、发电商及房地产公司则正在经历利润大幅下滑。

8/28/2008

sinipec?,!-中国石化?,!

Serving the people or its shareholders? While China’s drivers fill their tanks on subsidised gas, investors can only watch and weep. Sinopec, part of China’s triumvirate of oil and gas companies and Asia’s biggest refiner, loses $19 on every barrel of oil it refines, according to brokerage CLSA – and that is after cross-subsidies and recent increases in gasoline prices.

Sinopec’s operating profit fell by 86 percent to slightly more than $1bn in the first half, thanks to that refining business. Yet, surprisingly, investors seem to feel chirpy. Sinopec’s share price has risen by 12 percent since the beginning of July, outstripping both the broader index of internationally listed Chinese shares and global energy peers. Why?

为人民服务,还是为股东服务?当中国的司机们往他们的邮箱中加满补贴汽油的时候,投资者们只能在旁观看并哭泣。CLSA估计,作为中国三大油气公司之一和亚洲最大炼油商,中国石化每精炼1桶原油,就会损失19美元,这还是在交叉补贴和最近汽油价格上涨之后。

由于这项炼油业务,中国石化上半年营运利润下降86%,略高于10亿美元。但令人惊讶的是,投资者似乎对此颇为满意。自7月初以来,中国石化股价已上涨12%,表现优于境外上市中国股票指数和全球同类能源股。原因何在?

8/27/2008

Sinopec?,!

Serving the people or its shareholders? While China’s drivers fill their tanks on subsidised gas, investors can only watch and weep. Sinopec, part of China’s triumvirate of oil and gas companies and Asia’s biggest refiner, loses $19 on every barrel of oil it refines, according to brokerage CLSA – and that is after cross-subsidies and recent increases in gasoline prices.

Sinopec’s operating profit fell by 86 percent to slightly more than $1bn in the first half, thanks to that refining business. Yet, surprisingly, investors seem to feel chirpy. Sinopec’s share price has risen by 12 percent since the beginning of July, outstripping both the broader index of internationally listed Chinese shares and global energy peers. Why?

8/26/2008

这是简单的查看方式

Miss 장,你要是想简单查看呢,就按照这个步骤来。

Step1:登录后在右边有个“选项”菜单image

Step2:点击“选项”菜单

image

Step3:然后在下拉菜单中最后有个“统计”,然后你点击它。

image

Step4:这样就跳到统计页面了。在统计页面中出现的信息有:访问者访问你页面的时间访问的哪个页面,以及引用地址(也就是在哪个网页上出现了你这个空间的地址,你的地址是http://zq0125.spaces.live.com,要是某个网页上出现了你的地址,就会在引用地址出现)

image

至于你说谁看了,这个要借助第三方统计工具,你要是需要的话,我再教你。

 

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MIDI wrote:
...
Sept. 2
sophie NIwrote:
英语翻译得很棒
Aug. 31
. .wrote:
怎么还来个貌似~自己哪一年的不知道呀~咬牙切齿
我啊~80后的呗~这么年轻怎么可能是70后的人啊~什么眼神啊~这还用问么~真是............
困啦~我去找周公啦~困了
Aug. 28
. .wrote:
你86年的呀~
Aug. 28
. .wrote:
啊~不可以看访问者的啊~太不公平了~怎么......야 !!!
切~我要是写23呢~
Aug. 27
. .wrote:
昂~我想看 有谁来看过我的页面 具体到那个人 我想看看誰来我这溜达一圈 去那人那看看~
Aug. 27
. .wrote:
呀~ 忘了你给我留什么了~ 也忘了要说什么了~ 汗!!!!!!
等我回去看看 再来留吧~ 闪啦~ 啊~你几几年生的啊? 我想看看咱俩誰大~
Aug. 27
. .wrote:
我想知道 最近访客 在哪里 能看到啊~
都不知道 谁看过 我的 页面~失望
Aug. 26
Queenawrote:
:呵呵
:80后怎么了?
:你学英语还是韩语?
:貌似你很厉害?
Aug. 26
. .wrote:
无聊死了~睡觉去了~沉睡的弯月
Aug. 25